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Weighing the Odds: A Course in Probability and Statistics by David Williams

Weighing the Odds: A Course in Probability and Statistics David Williams ebook
Format: pdf
ISBN: 052100618X, 9780521006187
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Page: 567

As I've written often, the most amazing coincidence of all would be the complete absence of all coincidences. Of course, not every bet can win, but 'value' betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits. To calculate the probability of Bob's winning at least 20 games, you use not only the data that you saw (that Bob won 20 games out of 30) but also the imaginary data of Bob winning 21 out of 30 games, or 22 out of 30 games, all the way up to Bob winning all 30 games. For example, at the start of a season if you are considering 38 matches, you are considering the last 2 seasons with a 50/50 weight. Jaynes' demonstration that, in the face of ignorance as to how a particular statistic was generated, the best approach is to maximize the (informational) entropy. The idea of probability itself is present in such words as “chance,” “likelihood,” “fate,” “odds,” “gods,” “fortune,” “luck,” “happenstance,” “random,” and many others. A new college textbook teaches introductory statistics through America's pastime. Steven Cherry: This is mainly a book about statistics, but in a college course, frequently statistics and probability are taught together. Yet playing with one's head doesn't mean simply memorizing a slew of poker statistics. 'VALUE' bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the 'true' odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each 'value' bet recommendation. I'll close with perhaps the most fundamental tension between stories and statistics. Obviously it is extremely difficult to predict In order to establish statistical probabilities, historic data about life spans and health factors is compiled for large populations of people. The resulting Over the course of 130 years, that equates to an increase of six hundredths of a degree Celsius (margin of error of 3.9 hundredths at two std deviations). 'David Williams is a very distinguished mathematician with an enthusiasm for the subject which lights up the book. Chances are good they'll bite, since from their perspective you look like a stock-picking genius. Was a popular book for grade-school kids called How and Why: The Science of Sport that used examples from various sports to teach basic concepts of science: potential energy, angular momentum, speed versus acceleration, weight versus mass. If your model of 'cheating' is that it increases the odds of winning to 2/3rds, well then of course it is a good fit to data in which we have a 2/3rd win rate. Weighing the Odds: A Course in Probability and Statistics David Williams | Cambridge University Press | September, 3113 | 666 pages | English | pdf. How it Works Probability allows these players to deduce the odds that they will be able to catch the cards they need to produce a winning hand. In order to price a life insurance policy correctly, insurance companies of course have to weigh the odds that they will have to pay the death benefit as well as to determine when they have to pay it (payment now is much more costly than payment in ten-years' time). For successful players, it also means Players must then factor in the number of opponents being dealt in (as they each receive two cards) to weigh the strength of their own hand and gauge a betting strategy from there.